Fund flow intelligence
Where the money is going next
Turn complex fund data into clear, forward-looking insights. Anticipate emerging trends, track competitors, and act before the market moves.
AUMdrive November 2026 1-Month Ahead Flow Predictions
Source: AUMdrive.
Forecasts are estimates, not investment advice.
Product
Predict with confidence, increase revenue and efficiency
Find out which funds are poised to gain or lose assets to bolster sales and support marketing initiative decisions.
Get ahead of market trends with our aggregated predictions which pool fund flows by asset classes, asset managers, sectors and styles, geographies, management approaches, and more.
Benchmark against your top peers by comparing predicted flows and market share up to 12 months ahead.
Accuracy
Lower errors than competing benchmarks at every horizon
Accuracy is measured by our predictions’ mean absolute error: meaning how far the predicted fund net flow was from the actual one, as a share of the fund’s starting AUM on an absolute difference basis. Naturally, a lower mean absolute error indicates a higher accuracy.
The test runs on 18 months the model never saw, May 2024 to October 2025, against two benchmarks: ordinary least squares (OLS), the standard linear model, and naive carry-forward, which assumes next month repeats last month. Diebold–Mariano tests confirm every improvement (p < 0.001).
1.97%Average 1-month error for US funds, against 2.15% for OLS
90%+Of 1-month forecasts within 3% error threshold
| Region | Horizon | AUMdrive | OLS | Naive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 1 month | 1.97 | 2.15 | 2.84 |
| 3 months | 4.73 | 5.35 | 6.43 | |
| 6 months | 8.42 | 9.06 | 10.35 | |
| Europe | 1 month | 2.75 | 2.88 | 4.21 |
| 3 months | 6.65 | 6.90 | 9.35 | |
| 6 months | 11.50 | 12.04 | 15.28 |
Mean absolute error, % of starting AUM, out of sample, May 2024 to October 2025.
Lower is better.
OLS: ordinary least squares.
Naive: last month’s flow carried forward.
Source: AUMdrive research paper, May 2026.
The 12-month horizon, Money Market funds and Alternative funds are on the platform but outside the paper’s tests, so these figures do not apply to them.
The 90%+ figure is measured on the platform, not in the paper.
Coverage
United States and every major fund market in Europe
A forecast for each mutual fund and ETF, in dollars and as a percentage of AUM (organic growth), rolled up to the views your teams use.
- Horizons
- 1, 3, 6 and 12 months ahead
- Breakdown by
- Asset class, category, sector, style, geographic focus, domicile, active or passive, retail or institutional, manager
- Units
- USD and % of starting AUM
- History and refresh
- Refreshed monthly, with point-in-time history from 2021 for clean backtests
Delivery
Delivered the way your team already works
Use the platform, or take the same forecasts into your own existing systems. Every channel carries the full forecast set and its history.
Platform
Explore forecasts by fund, manager, category and region in the browser, from Home and My flows to Explore and Competitor intelligence.
API
Pull forecasts and history straight into your models, dashboards and CRM, on your own schedule.
Flat Files
Monthly files with the full forecast set and point-in-time history, ready for research and backtests.
SFTP
Scheduled, secure file drops to your servers each month, for production pipelines.
Robustness
Forecasts held up through three market shocks
We tracked one-month forecast errors month by month around COVID-19, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the April 2025 tariff shock. Errors were contained despite rising in each episode, most evident during the Covid-19 market crash, though eased in the months that followed.
The tariff shock fell in the out-of-sample period, so it tested the model on data it had never seen.
Read section 6.3 of the research paper- March 2020COVID-19The largest and longest rise in error of the three, easing over the following months.
- February 2022Invasion of UkraineA smaller, shorter rise, felt more in Europe than in the US.
- April 2025Tariff shockA contained rise, on data outside the model’s training period.
Teams
One set of forecasts, used across the firm
Flow forecasts answer different questions for different teams. Here is how asset managers and hedge funds put them to work.
Sales and Distribution
Put sales time where assets are about to move.
- RetentionSee which funds are forecasted to lose assets and reach their largest holders before they redeem.
- PrioritisationFocus coverage on the clients most likely to allocate to the funds and categories set to gain.
- Cross-SellingOffer products that match where each client’s money is heading, and grow your share in their portfolios.
- Client SegmentationSpot which types of investor are moving into or out of each category.
Marketing
Spend where demand is heading, not where it was.
- RelevanceTime campaigns to the sectors, themes and products with the most anticipated demand.
- Competitive PositioningKnow which rival funds are set for inflows, and show where yours beats them on fees, performance or ESG.
- Geographic FocusOptimise the budget and distribution efforts to the domiciles forecasted to attract larger subscriptions.
Product Strategy
Build the fund range around future demand.
- Launch TimingSee which categories, styles and themes are set to gather assets before you commit to a launch.
- Range ReviewFlag funds with sustained forecast outflows as candidates to reposition, merge or close.
- PricingSet fees and share classes with forecast demand and competitors’ expected flows in view.
Business Intelligence
Competitor and market insight, months ahead.
- Competitor FlowsTrack peers’ forecast flows and benchmark your organic growth by category, sector, style and region.
- Future Market ShareSee how each category’s share is forecast to shift between you and your competitors.
- Market ViewFeed aggregate forecasts into your data platform to see where the whole market is moving.
Portfolio Management
Know your own flows before they land.
- Cash PlanningAnticipate subscriptions and redemptions so cash is ready to invest or pay out, without forced trades.
- AllocationUse forecast flows across Equity, Fixed Income and Alternatives to inform allocation and rebalancing.
- SentimentRead shifts in investor demand ahead of macro events, such as rate changes, and reduce downside risk.
Risk and Liquidity
See liquidity needs before they arrive.
- Outflow SurgesForecast outflows in volatile markets, as High-Yield Bond funds saw in 2020, before they hit.
- Cash BuffersHold liquidity where it will be needed, and avoid both distressed sales and idle cash.
- ResilienceUse forecast flows to assess the health of funds and sectors and recalibrate exposures.
ETF Capital Markets
Keep spreads tight when demand moves.
- LiquidityBrief market makers and authorised participants ahead of forecast creations and redemptions.
- Price IntegrityKeep the ETF’s price close to its NAV, and tracking difference low, through large flow events.
- ExecutionPlan large trades around forecast flows to limit market impact.
Finance and Leadership
Plan the business on forecast assets.
- Revenue PlanningTurn forecast AUM into forecast fee revenue for budgets and board reporting.
- Growth TargetsSet organic growth targets by fund, team and region that reflect where demand is heading.
- Investment DecisionsDecide where to invest, from distribution to new markets, on forward-looking demand.
Your Team Isn’t Listed?
Tell us what you need to anticipate, and we will show you where flow forecasts fit.
Investment
Trade ahead of the demand that moves prices.
- Price PressureMap forecast fund flows onto underlying holdings to anticipate net buying and selling, then trade ahead of forced demand or fade flows that have overshot.
- RotationTilt toward the sectors, styles and regions forecast to attract capital, and away from those set to lose it.
- ETF and Index FlowsPosition ahead of creation, redemption and rebalancing demand in the largest, most flow-sensitive vehicles.
Risk
See the unwind before it starts.
- Crowding and DeleveragingSpot the flow-driven factor reversals and redemption-fuelled unwinds behind sharp drawdowns, and cut exposure early.
- Redemption StressFlag funds facing large outflows, and the names they are likely to sell.
- Book LiquidityStress-test the liquidity of your positions against forecast forced selling.
Quant Research and Data Science
A clean, low-correlation input for your models.
- BacktestsPoint-in-time forecasts from 2021, recorded as they were made, with no look-ahead.
- FeaturesAdd fund, category and regional flow forecasts to existing alpha and risk models, standalone or blended.
- IntegrationLoad by API or flat file straight into your research and production stack.
Trading and Execution
Trade around the flow calendar.
- TimingSchedule entries and exits around forecast flows to cut market impact.
- CapacitySize positions with forecast liquidity in mind, so you don’t trade into a wave of demand.
Multi-Manager Platforms
One flow dataset for every pod.
- Firm-Wide Early WarningSee crowding and deleveraging risk building across pods before it reaches the book.
- Shared FeedGive every portfolio manager the same forecasts to plug into their books and risk overlays.
Test the Signal on Your Own Strategies
We will send forecasts and point-in-time history so your team can run its own backtests.
Research
Improving fund flow predictions with new machine learning techniques
Research paper, May 2026
Improving fund flow predictions with new machine learning techniques
AUMdrive’s methodology to forecast net fund flows for US and European-domiciled funds 1, 3, and 6-months ahead; and how it compares with standard benchmarks across asset classes, fund sizes, and selected periods of market stress.
- One-month forecasts for US funds missed the actual net flow by 1.97% of starting AUM on average, against 2.15% for OLS and 2.84% for naive carry-forward.
- Lower error than both benchmarks at every horizon, in the US and in Europe (p < 0.001).
- Errors are smallest for larger funds and for Multi-Asset funds.
PDF, 19 pages, 0.7 MB
Flow movers
This month’s largest predicted moves
Source: AUMdrive. Illustrative values.
Forecasts are estimates, not investment advice.
Why use AUMdrive?
Markets move fast. Outflows, inflows, sentiment shifts – staying ahead can feel impossible.
That's where AUMdrive helps. We predict flows granularly – at the fund level, to help asset managers with specific products, while also providing broader market views by aggregating flow predictions across asset classes, categories, sectors, styles, geographies, and more.
We surface predictions you can act on, offering a reliable forward-looking view into what is driving the market and how to respond.